Dolar yesterday lived another day of losses before the real, to finish sold at $ 1,657-lower price since May 1999. The weakness of the American currency is not a fact restricted to the Brazilian currency. But, considering the last 12 months, the real leader among the major currencies that gained more value against the dollar. During the currency devaluation of the United States has 18.61% against the real.
Other currencies in different regions have experienced similar movement. Among them, 12 months, the falls amargadas US dollars before the currency as Colombian peso (-16.35%), Peruvian new sol (-14.61%), yen (-14%), Chilean peso (-13 , 54%), Australian dollar (-10.99%) and euro (-10.82%).
In operations yesterday, the dollar was being traded at its lowest historical value against the euro, to $ 1.5982.
In the Brazilian market, the dollar has deteriorated 5.48% just this month. Yesterday, fell 0.42%.
The strength of the real affect exports of the country, the encarecê them, but the barateia imported, which helps hold inflation and increase investment in machinery and technology imported.
The resumption of the elevation of interest in Brazil reinforces the expectation that the real follow up. Two days ago, the base rate was increased from 11.25% to 11.75% annually. The market expects the high follow at least until the end of 2008, when the project Selic at 12.75%.
Meanwhile, interest have been reduced in the United States - from 5.25% to 2.25% in September. This movement tends to attract more resources to the country in search of the high pay offered by the interest of the country, the largest in the world. And if U.S. dollars entering the market at a time of low demand for the currency, strengthens up the trend of appreciation of the real.
"The exchange rate reflects the current scenario of expectation of high interest. But we must not forget also that the dollar depreciation is having on the outside before other currencies," says the chief economist of Banco Fibra, Maristela Ansanelli.
The movement of devaluation of the dollar in the world is not a recent phenomenon. For some years the currency has retreated because of the fiscal deficit in the USA.
As the government George W. Bush - which began in 2001 - spends more than it collects, was forced to issue more debt securities to finance. Thus, puts more dollars in circulation in the market, which favors the fall in the price of the currency.
Recently, other factors have started to contribute to the fall. The first is the difference in the rate of North American interest in relation to the other countries: the United States, the rate of low presents trend, while in other places follows stable. Then comes the explosion in the prices of agricultural commodities and metal, which favors the external accounts of the countries that are large exporters, Brazil included.
"And the country has attracted resources applications also for the long term and investments in the productive sector," says Filipe Albert, economist of the consultancy Trends.
In the market, the impression is of continuity in the fall of the price of the U.S. currency. Ansanelli, Fiber, still works with the estimates of dollar to R $ 1.65 at the end of the year. "But, given the current scenario, the price could fall below that."
While most economists suggests the harmful effects of the dollar down, as the encarecimento exports, nobody expects the government announces measures to reverse the direction of the currency. The increase in imports could also harm the national manufacturers.
Currently, the BC has been limited to auctions, virtually every day, to buy dollars of banks - operation that has had little effect on trading.
"Any action taken now would go against the foundations of the movement today. Therefore, it would not have an outcome consistent and durable," says Miriam Tavares, director of the brokerage AGK exchange.
"The exchange rate depends on the market is" complete.
